basing reaction on outcome severity vs risk probability

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Mishra A K, Singh V P.A review of drought concepts. Key words: drought, copula funcion, return period, drought risk, the Aksu River Basin The results can provide theoretical support for the basin drought risk response and mitigation.

3) The results also show that long-lasting droughts are highly probably the severe droughts. The estern and southern drought risk are higher than the western and northern. 2) The drought risk across the Aksu River Basin is very high. It can make the analysis based on the frequency of Copula function's result more objective and reliable. When using the curve fitting method to get the distribution function of drought duration, we can define the empirical frequency formula as experience frequency of the two-dimensional Copula function edge distribution. 1) To describe the joint distribution, the fitting effect of GH Copula is the best, Frank Copula’s is following. Finally, the spatial distribution status of the drought return periods of the 9 meteorologic stations were analyzed. Though 4 statistical methods（eg.RMSE、AIC、BIC and Bayes）, 3 kinds of Archimedean Copula were respectively employed to describe the joint distribution of the two drought characteristics variables.

Based on the daily precipitation data of 9 meteorological stations within and around the Aksu River Basin from 1960 to 2010, the distribution function of drought duration and drought severity were analyzed using Pa index by Curve fitting method and the Run theory.

Basing reaction on outcome severity vs risk probability